Wanting something more intensely does not make it more likely to happen — but it does make you more likely to pay too much for it. The psychologist George Loewenstein studied what he called 'hot states': moments when desire, fear, or excitement floods the brain and systematically distorts how we evaluate options. In a hot state, we don't just want the thing more — we genuinely believe it's worth more. The Saturday afternoon apartment viewing, the asado table where someone pitches a business idea, the first good week in a new relationship: these are all hot states in disguise, and every financial or personal commitment made inside one carries a hidden tax. The practical move isn't to avoid enthusiasm — it's to build a 24-hour gap between the feeling and the commitment, so your future self gets a vote.

In the last 48 hours, did you make any agreement — financial, social, or otherwise — while you were noticeably excited or anxious? What did you tell yourself it was worth in that moment?

Drawing from Behavioral Psychology / Affective Forecasting — George Loewenstein