Here's a counterintuitive truth about medicine: the more data you have, the more dangerous certainty becomes. The Stoics called this the discipline of assent — Epictetus taught that the trained mind withholds judgment until it has tested an impression against reality, rather than immediately accepting what appears obvious. Modern clinical decision theory echoes this almost exactly: 'anchoring bias,' where a physician locks onto a first diagnosis and filters all subsequent evidence through it, is responsible for a striking proportion of diagnostic errors. Together, Epictetan discipline and decision theory suggest that the expert's real skill isn't pattern recognition — it's the practiced pause before committing to a pattern. Today, notice the first conclusion you reach about something — a symptom, a colleague's behavior, a treatment response — and ask yourself: have I actually tested this impression, or just accepted it?

When was the last time you changed your mind mid-case — and what made it hard to let go of your first read?

Drawing from Stoicism / Decision Theory — Epictetus